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The Growth Race Continues
 
1.6%
2.3%
6.6%
4.5%
1.2%
2017 GDP GROWTH
     
  Soft Landing Ahead  
  Our China Coincident Indicator is relatively strong, suggesting broadly based growth momentum. Even if some softening of activity is experienced, we are revising up our China GDP forecasts.  
     
  Ongoing Economic Expansion  
  The US economic expansion has continued, with the labour market close to full employment. Business confidence indicators are picking up, especially for small businesses.  
     
  Fragmented Economic Outlook  
  The outlook for EMs has slightly improved as global conditions seem friendlier: the US dollar has remained in a tight range so the perils of a stronger dollar have so far been averted. Regional differences remain.  
     
  Resilient European Economy  
  The Eurozone GDP mildly improved in 2016. The manufacturing PMI sector, an important growth driver for the economy, rose sharply and was supported by a stronger domestic demand.  
     
  External Conditions Supportive  
  The macro momentum in Japan is positive, thanks to robust external support in the region and accommodative monetary policy complemented by expansionary fiscal policy.  
     
INFLATION
 
“Inflation is finally materializing
and is moving towards
relatively comfortable ranges for
the main economies”
 
   
 
Global Themes
 
 
  Paradigm Shift
  As the need for monetary policy expansion has shrunk and its effectiveness declined, more efficient and growth-friendly fiscal policies are becoming a necessity. Consequently DM economies have progressively removed their fiscal consolidation stance.
 
 
N. of DM Countries
by Fiscal Policy Stance
 
   
 
 
  Central Banks' Policy Asynchrony
  As US data continue to point to a strong recovery and domestically-generated inflation, Central Banks' divergences persist. The Fed delivered the year’s first hike in March and we expect 2 more 25bps hikes in 2017.
 
 
 
 
 
 
  EM Divergences
  EM fundamentals have improved in terms of macro stability and vulnerability, but growth divergence continues. Among EMs, countries in Eastern Europe have benefitted the most from the improvement in the European region.
 
   
 
 
  Geopolitical Risks
  Europe is currently the heart of political uncertainty with the elections in France, the start of Brexit negotiations, the fragile political situation in Italy and the pervading Euro-sceptic sentiment. Elsewhere, Trump’s “art of no deal” cannot last much longer.
 
 
 
 
 
Important Information
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Pioneer Investments and is as of April 26, 2017.
The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Pioneer Investments, and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions and there can be no assurances that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, as securities recommendations, or as an indication of trading on behalf of any Pioneer Investment product. There is no guarantee that market forecasts discussed will be realized or that these trends will continue. Investments involve certain risks, including political and currency risks. Investment return and principal value may go down as well as up and could result in the loss of all capital invested.
This material does not constitute an offer to buy or a solicitation to sell any units of any investment fund or any service.
All investments involve risks. You should consider your financial needs, goals, and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
Pioneer Investments is a trading name of the Pioneer Global Asset Management S.p.A. group of companies.
Source: Analysis by Pioneer Investments - Global Asset Allocation Research, IMF Fiscal Monitor,Bloomberg. Data as April 26, 2017. *Vulnerability Index takes into account: CA and Funding; External Debt and ST External Debt; Reserve Adequacy; Domestic Variables.
Devised by: Claudia Bertino and Laura Fiorot, Financial Communication.

Date of First Use:
May 2, 2017.

Macroeconomic Outlook for 2017